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Red150
439515.7
353853.6
30253.0
Blue123
3538B33.6
657036.0
54840.5
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13111150150200250150123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.60.5
53.053.6
Auto11.0
Teleop32.9
End9.1
red by 13.1
548
#19
40.50.3
39.339.6
Auto10.8
Teleop23.5
End5.9
Second
302
#8
53.00.5
52.553.0
Auto12.7
Teleop30.6
End9.1
red by 17.0
36.00.3
34.835.1
Auto10.6
Teleop15.7
End10.0
Third
4395
#25
15.70.5
15.115.7
Auto5.0
Teleop6.1
End4.7
blue by 17.9
33.60.3
32.432.6
Auto5.9
Teleop20.3
End7.7