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Red158
5828.9
568754.1
632968.5
Blue151
632849.6
802333.2
271344.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15912750100200250158151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.50.1
67.968.0
Auto16.7
Teleop40.3
End8.8
red by 18.9
6328
#11
49.60.5
48.148.6
Auto18.2
Teleop23.1
End7.4
Second
54.10.1
53.653.6
Auto14.5
Teleop31.7
End6.1
red by 9.9
44.30.5
42.843.3
Auto9.1
Teleop30.0
End4.8
Third
58
#30
28.90.1
28.328.4
Auto8.8
Teleop14.1
End6.1
blue by 4.4
8023
#19
33.20.5
31.832.2
Auto8.6
Teleop16.6
End8.6