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Red159
931247.7
439827.6
546061.3
Blue100
81522.8
353840.7
365537.0
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145103050200159100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.30.6
59.660.2
Auto15.1
Teleop35.4
End9.5
red by 20.6
3538
#20
40.70.0
41.341.2
Auto9.9
Teleop22.4
End8.3
Second
47.70.6
46.046.6
Auto11.4
Teleop28.1
End7.9
red by 10.7
37.00.0
37.637.5
Auto8.4
Teleop21.6
End5.9
Third
4398
#27
27.60.6
25.826.4
Auto9.1
Teleop11.8
End7.0
red by 4.7
815
#23
22.80.0
22.922.8
Auto10.2
Teleop6.8
End6.1