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Red117
999829.2
998422.6
842643.4
Blue107
370729.6
214526.6
366731.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions838360708090100110117107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8426
#16
43.41.6
42.844.4
Auto14.3
Teleop21.3
End7.3
red by 12.1
3667
#14
31.21.6
29.531.2
Auto7.8
Teleop16.5
End6.9
Second
29.22.7
28.831.4
Auto5.9
Teleop15.6
End7.9
blue by 0.4
3707
#25
29.61.6
28.830.4
Auto4.6
Teleop17.1
End8.0
Third
9984
#22
22.62.7
21.324.0
Auto6.1
Teleop10.8
End6.3
blue by 4.0
2145
#21
26.61.6
24.426.0
Auto11.8
Teleop8.0
End7.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
6%Sustainability oddsEarned7%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
38%Activation oddsEarned49%Activation oddsEarned