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Red193
239952.0
393762.4
93071.7
Blue103
368361.3
31959.2
362056.7
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions195181150250193103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
930
#9
71.70.0
71.671.6
Auto16.5
Teleop44.4
End9.3
red by 10.3
3683
#34
61.31.5
62.961.3
Auto13.3
Teleop39.8
End6.7
Second
62.40.0
62.362.3
Auto15.7
Teleop38.7
End7.2
red by 3.2
319
#4
59.21.5
60.759.2
Auto16.0
Teleop33.9
End7.8
Third
2399
#14
52.00.0
51.952.0
Auto15.0
Teleop27.3
End8.9
blue by 4.7
3620
#59
56.71.5
58.256.7
Auto12.9
Teleop34.5
End7.4