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Red115
86240.6
887325.3
224621.8
Blue101
615027.5
719511.2
365537.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions896820406080100120140115101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
862
#3
40.62.3
38.640.8
Auto11.2
Teleop21.9
End7.4
red by 3.4
3655
#11
37.22.6
32.635.2
Auto7.6
Teleop21.5
End8.1
Second
8873
#27
25.32.5
22.825.3
Auto4.9
Teleop12.9
End7.5
blue by 2.2
6150
#21
27.52.3
25.227.5
Auto4.1
Teleop15.9
End7.5
Third
2246
#16
21.82.5
19.822.3
Auto6.5
Teleop10.3
End5.1
red by 10.7
7195
#32
11.22.6
8.611.2
Auto1.7
Teleop4.7
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
4%Sustainability oddsEarned7%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
43%Activation oddsEarned17%Activation oddsEarned