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Red126
511440.7
523121.7
521648.5
Blue105
542437.6
377037.9
675329.8
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11811250100150200126105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.50.3
48.348.6
Auto11.7
Teleop26.7
End10.0
red by 10.5
37.90.0
38.138.1
Auto10.7
Teleop17.2
End10.1
Second
40.70.3
40.540.9
Auto12.6
Teleop18.9
End9.3
red by 3.1
37.60.0
37.837.7
Auto12.5
Teleop18.1
End7.1
Third
5231
#22
21.70.3
21.521.9
Auto5.3
Teleop9.0
End7.5
blue by 8.1
6753
#27
29.80.0
29.929.9
Auto8.2
Teleop13.5
End8.1