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Red122
664216.8
516655.6
571253.2
Blue131
521648.5
523121.7
511440.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1371146080100160180200220122131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.60.1
55.855.7
Auto16.7
Teleop30.0
End8.8
red by 7.1
48.50.2
48.248.5
Auto11.7
Teleop26.7
End10.0
Second
53.20.1
53.553.4
Auto13.5
Teleop31.0
End8.7
red by 12.5
40.70.2
40.540.7
Auto12.6
Teleop18.9
End9.3
Third
6642
#29
16.80.1
17.016.9
Auto4.9
Teleop5.5
End6.3
blue by 5.0
5231
#22
21.70.2
21.521.7
Auto5.3
Teleop9.0
End7.5