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Red120
721151.2
719740.3
931249.7
Blue151
540654.4
872829.7
442259.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions151140050100200250300350120151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.20.5
51.651.2
Auto16.0
Teleop25.6
End8.2
blue by 7.8
59.00.1
55.755.9
Auto14.7
Teleop34.4
End8.6
Second
49.70.5
50.249.7
Auto11.0
Teleop30.0
End7.7
blue by 4.7
54.40.1
51.251.3
Auto15.4
Teleop31.0
End7.0
Third
7197
#19
40.30.5
40.740.3
Auto10.2
Teleop19.9
End9.7
red by 10.5
8728
#21
29.70.1
26.526.6
Auto10.6
Teleop11.0
End9.2