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Red128
505331.3
353440.4
566043.4
Blue167
233761.9
353866.5
785611.4
14%Model gave it86%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11715650100200128167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.40.2
43.243.4
Auto9.9
Teleop27.0
End6.6
blue by 23.0
66.50.1
67.067.1
Auto17.7
Teleop38.4
End10.0
Second
3534
#11
40.40.2
40.240.4
Auto11.8
Teleop19.9
End8.8
blue by 21.5
61.90.1
62.562.6
Auto15.1
Teleop38.8
End7.9
Third
5053
#23
31.30.2
31.131.3
Auto10.2
Teleop14.6
End6.4
red by 19.9
7856
#36
11.40.1
11.912.0
Auto3.2
Teleop3.3
End5.0