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Red108
302636.2
617517.5
706839.5
Blue71
422626.1
469318.8
460754.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9611705015020025030010871

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.50.8
38.139.0
Auto8.4
Teleop30.0
End1.0
blue by 14.8
54.32.6
59.556.9
Auto9.5
Teleop42.1
End1.3
Second
36.20.8
37.638.4
Auto8.0
Teleop27.4
End0.8
red by 10.1
4226
#12
26.12.6
28.626.0
Auto6.6
Teleop19.7
End0.2
Third
6175
#11
17.51.0
19.820.9
Auto3.4
Teleop15.7
End-1.2
blue by 1.3
4693
#17
18.82.6
22.019.4
Auto1.7
Teleop18.1
End-0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
4%Sustainability oddsMissed41%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
60%Activation oddsEarned35%Activation oddsEarned