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Red63
401142.3
999413.6
297719.5
Blue13
99917.9
99934.4
591417.5
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions825301001502002503006313

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.30.3
34.634.2
Auto14.0
Teleop20.3
End7.7
red by 24.8
17.51.6
15.413.8
Auto5.7
Teleop8.2
End3.6
Second
19.50.3
21.721.4
Auto4.7
Teleop8.0
End6.7
red by 11.6
9991
#12
7.92.6
7.95.2
Auto2.7
Teleop4.6
End0.8
Third
13.60.5
6.66.0
Auto2.9
Teleop6.4
End4.7
red by 9.2
4.42.6
13.610.9
Auto2.7
Teleop1.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
14%Sustainability oddsMissed2%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
40%Activation oddsEarned41%Activation oddsMissed