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Red114
999130.3
998814.6
414353.1
Blue101
999627.6
642463.4
99999.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9998100105110114101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.10.1
53.153.3
Auto14.5
Teleop30.3
End8.0
blue by 10.3
63.40.0
62.862.7
Auto16.1
Teleop36.4
End9.3
Second
30.30.2
30.430.6
Auto12.3
Teleop13.7
End4.6
red by 2.7
27.60.1
26.526.5
Auto7.7
Teleop15.1
End5.2
Third
9988
#21
14.60.2
14.714.9
Auto4.3
Teleop6.2
End4.2
red by 5.1
9999
#24
9.50.1
8.48.4
Auto1.4
Teleop5.4
End3.2