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Red95
999130.3
998814.6
414353.1
Blue127
999627.6
642463.4
99999.5
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1009570809011012013014095127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.10.2
53.353.1
Auto14.5
Teleop30.3
End8.0
blue by 10.3
63.40.7
62.763.4
Auto16.1
Teleop36.4
End9.3
Second
30.30.3
30.630.3
Auto12.3
Teleop13.7
End4.6
red by 2.7
27.61.1
26.527.6
Auto7.7
Teleop15.1
End5.2
Third
9988
#21
14.60.3
14.914.6
Auto4.3
Teleop6.2
End4.2
red by 5.1
9999
#24
9.51.1
8.49.5
Auto1.4
Teleop5.4
End3.2