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Red99
509826.9
588940.7
181033.9
Blue125
180232.6
580146.5
245729.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1081045015020099125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.70.3
40.440.2
Auto10.0
Teleop25.1
End5.6
blue by 5.9
46.50.6
43.043.6
Auto9.6
Teleop27.9
End9.0
Second
1810
#14
33.90.3
33.733.4
Auto10.5
Teleop15.1
End8.3
red by 1.3
1802
#13
32.60.6
29.029.7
Auto6.5
Teleop18.4
End7.6
Third
5098
#25
26.90.3
26.626.4
Auto9.4
Teleop12.3
End5.3
blue by 2.3
2457
#22
29.10.6
25.626.2
Auto7.0
Teleop13.3
End8.9