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Red149
600430.0
350647.7
479552.4
Blue112
519040.9
842940.2
900033.0
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143117100200250149112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.40.4
52.853.2
Auto13.0
Teleop31.6
End7.8
red by 11.5
40.90.2
40.540.3
Auto11.2
Teleop22.8
End6.9
Second
47.70.4
48.048.4
Auto14.4
Teleop26.5
End6.6
red by 7.5
8429
#16
40.20.2
39.839.6
Auto9.4
Teleop21.9
End8.9
Third
6004
#28
30.00.4
30.430.8
Auto9.9
Teleop11.5
End8.6
blue by 3.0
9000
#35
33.00.2
32.632.4
Auto11.0
Teleop12.9
End9.1