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Red140
404140.9
107347.0
57135.3
Blue79
124719.7
13142.5
169945.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122118608010014016018014079

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1073
#18
47.01.7
44.846.6
Auto13.0
Teleop25.8
End8.0
red by 1.8
1699
#22
45.22.2
46.844.7
Auto15.1
Teleop22.7
End6.6
Second
4041
#27
40.91.7
36.838.5
Auto12.2
Teleop20.3
End8.1
blue by 1.6
131
#41
42.52.2
43.140.9
Auto10.5
Teleop23.5
End8.0
Third
571
#28
35.31.7
32.634.3
Auto9.0
Teleop21.0
End5.7
red by 15.6
1247
#45
19.72.2
21.719.5
Auto5.4
Teleop8.7
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
60%Sustainability oddsEarned57%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
79%Activation oddsEarned78%Activation oddsMissed