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Red185
347852.0
102350.6
299256.9
Blue159
452268.9
17758.4
908450.2
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169183100150200250300185159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.90.4
57.257.6
Auto14.4
Teleop33.6
End8.4
blue by 12.0
68.90.2
69.268.9
Auto15.1
Teleop40.1
End11.4
Second
3478
#43
52.00.4
52.352.7
Auto13.1
Teleop30.3
End8.2
blue by 6.4
177
#28
58.40.2
58.658.4
Auto11.1
Teleop36.6
End8.4
Third
1023
#19
50.60.4
50.951.3
Auto10.6
Teleop32.1
End8.0
red by 0.4
9084
#20
50.20.2
50.450.2
Auto12.3
Teleop29.0
End8.6