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Red179
19565.8
1155.2
303963.6
Blue179
318459.7
174658.1
432950.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions194170100150250179179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#18
65.80.1
66.466.3
Auto15.8
Teleop40.3
End7.8
red by 6.1
3184
#24
59.70.3
58.658.9
Auto15.4
Teleop35.4
End6.6
Second
63.60.1
64.264.0
Auto16.3
Teleop38.2
End7.9
red by 5.4
1746
#14
58.10.3
57.057.3
Auto13.1
Teleop35.6
End8.9
Third
11
#30
55.20.1
55.355.2
Auto15.1
Teleop31.2
End8.0
red by 4.8
50.40.3
50.250.4
Auto13.7
Teleop27.3
End9.7