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Red130
676334.4
15118.2
346760.4
Blue121
31939.3
287634.1
271341.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117116708090100110130140150130121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.41.0
55.756.7
Auto15.0
Teleop35.4
End8.7
red by 19.2
2713
#15
41.20.2
40.340.1
Auto11.6
Teleop23.4
End6.2
Second
34.41.0
32.733.7
Auto8.4
Teleop17.2
End9.3
blue by 4.8
319
#26
39.30.2
38.338.0
Auto14.7
Teleop21.2
End3.2
Third
151
#21
18.21.0
17.018.0
Auto4.0
Teleop8.6
End5.8
blue by 15.9
2876
#19
34.10.2
33.833.6
Auto9.1
Teleop18.6
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
47%Sustainability oddsEarned63%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
61%Activation oddsEarned52%Activation oddsMissed