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Red155
173537.5
115338.2
346760.4
Blue121
13839.7
676334.4
175746.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13512480100140160155121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.40.7
57.558.2
Auto15.0
Teleop35.4
End8.7
red by 14.0
1757
#18
46.40.1
45.745.8
Auto12.3
Teleop24.2
End8.9
Second
1153
#28
38.20.7
35.336.0
Auto10.3
Teleop20.7
End7.0
blue by 1.5
138
#20
39.70.1
38.939.0
Auto10.0
Teleop23.8
End5.4
Third
1735
#17
37.50.7
34.635.3
Auto9.5
Teleop20.7
End7.0
red by 3.1
34.40.1
33.733.8
Auto8.4
Teleop17.2
End9.3