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Red118
146842.5
287525.3
301558.8
Blue143
87053.9
287255.3
33423.6
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions135140100150200118143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.80.4
59.058.5
Auto15.1
Teleop35.7
End8.0
red by 3.5
55.30.3
54.554.9
Auto15.3
Teleop29.7
End10.2
Second
42.50.5
42.742.2
Auto9.8
Teleop27.4
End5.2
blue by 11.4
870
#2
53.90.3
53.253.5
Auto12.8
Teleop31.5
End9.6
Third
2875
#18
25.30.5
25.525.0
Auto6.0
Teleop12.5
End6.7
red by 1.6
334
#28
23.60.3
22.923.2
Auto6.9
Teleop12.8
End3.9