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Red152
146842.5
287525.3
301558.8
Blue151
87053.9
287255.3
33423.6
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13314180100120160180200220240152151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.80.3
58.558.8
Auto15.1
Teleop35.7
End8.0
red by 3.5
55.30.4
54.955.3
Auto15.3
Teleop29.7
End10.2
Second
42.50.3
42.242.5
Auto9.8
Teleop27.4
End5.2
blue by 11.4
870
#2
53.90.4
53.553.9
Auto12.8
Teleop31.5
End9.6
Third
2875
#18
25.30.3
25.025.3
Auto6.0
Teleop12.5
End6.7
red by 1.6
334
#28
23.60.4
23.223.6
Auto6.9
Teleop12.8
End3.9