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Red108
493030.3
540656.1
574036.8
Blue98
301555.2
37935.8
34032.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1351319010011012014015016017010898

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.10.4
56.556.2
Auto15.5
Teleop31.0
End9.0
red by 0.9
55.20.7
56.055.2
Auto13.6
Teleop33.3
End8.0
Second
36.80.4
37.236.8
Auto9.7
Teleop21.3
End5.9
red by 1.0
379
#20
35.80.7
36.535.8
Auto11.9
Teleop16.7
End7.2
Third
4930
#21
30.30.4
30.930.5
Auto5.3
Teleop18.7
End6.6
blue by 2.5
340
#26
32.80.7
33.632.8
Auto6.7
Teleop19.1
End7.1