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Red51
158512.1
318133.9
395124.5
Blue93
205332.6
57833.3
37828.6
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions731060501502005193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3181
#16
33.90.6
34.533.9
Auto10.0
Teleop17.4
End6.5
red by 0.6
578
#8
33.30.0
33.533.5
Auto7.3
Teleop18.1
End7.9
Second
3951
#10
24.50.6
25.124.5
Auto8.9
Teleop10.1
End5.7
blue by 8.1
32.60.0
32.832.8
Auto11.3
Teleop15.5
End5.9
Third
1585
#12
12.10.6
12.712.1
Auto5.0
Teleop1.7
End5.6
blue by 16.5
378
#17
28.60.0
28.828.8
Auto5.5
Teleop16.6
End6.6