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Red70
300333.3
873923.1
700415.3
Blue106
457122.7
151127.0
630023.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions736702004006008001,0001,2001,40070106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3003
#17
33.30.2
30.931.1
Auto12.9
Teleop13.7
End6.7
red by 6.3
1511
#35
27.01.5
23.324.8
Auto8.8
Teleop11.6
End6.7
Second
8739
#32
23.10.2
22.522.7
Auto8.0
Teleop6.6
End8.5
blue by 0.2
6300
#29
23.31.5
17.919.4
Auto5.6
Teleop12.6
End5.0
Third
7004
#46
15.30.2
14.114.2
Auto5.7
Teleop6.8
End2.7
blue by 7.5
4571
#28
22.71.5
22.423.9
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End7.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
3%Sustainability oddsMissed4%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
45%Activation oddsEarned53%Activation oddsEarned