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Red96
81033.3
395039.6
14437.0
Blue121
412240.9
279145.7
457122.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191125010015020096121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3950
#13
39.60.3
39.939.6
Auto9.8
Teleop22.1
End7.7
blue by 6.1
2791
#30
45.70.3
44.745.0
Auto12.3
Teleop26.7
End6.6
Second
144
#4
37.00.3
37.337.0
Auto10.5
Teleop19.4
End7.0
blue by 4.0
40.90.3
39.940.3
Auto11.7
Teleop21.0
End8.2
Third
810
#21
33.30.3
33.733.3
Auto9.0
Teleop19.3
End4.9
red by 10.6
4571
#28
22.70.3
21.722.0
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End7.6