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Red161
493029.7
179646.8
301561.6
Blue143
34043.4
149345.7
42436.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144132100120160180200220161143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.60.5
60.060.5
Auto15.8
Teleop36.5
End9.3
red by 15.9
45.70.4
45.846.2
Auto12.4
Teleop23.3
End10.0
Second
46.80.5
45.245.7
Auto12.5
Teleop26.2
End8.1
red by 3.5
340
#7
43.40.4
43.443.8
Auto10.1
Teleop26.2
End7.2
Third
4930
#39
29.70.5
28.128.6
Auto6.6
Teleop17.4
End5.8
blue by 6.6
424
#22
36.30.4
36.336.7
Auto10.5
Teleop20.1
End5.7