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Red175
156146.0
642461.3
233334.9
Blue171
316033.6
464643.2
500646.5
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15012350100200175171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.30.7
60.160.8
Auto15.0
Teleop37.1
End8.7
red by 14.7
46.50.9
45.146.0
Auto12.3
Teleop26.2
End8.1
Second
46.00.7
44.845.5
Auto10.6
Teleop25.2
End10.1
red by 2.8
4646
#17
43.20.9
41.842.7
Auto11.6
Teleop24.8
End6.7
Third
2333
#34
34.90.7
33.834.5
Auto10.2
Teleop20.4
End4.2
red by 1.4
3160
#29
33.60.9
32.233.1
Auto6.9
Teleop19.7
End7.0