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Red169
500646.5
464643.2
316033.6
Blue125
235929.2
235735.8
241033.5
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12710050150200169125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.50.9
43.944.8
Auto12.3
Teleop26.2
End8.1
red by 10.7
2357
#22
35.80.5
35.335.8
Auto11.4
Teleop17.3
End7.1
Second
4646
#17
43.20.9
40.641.4
Auto11.6
Teleop24.8
End6.7
red by 9.7
33.50.5
33.033.5
Auto9.8
Teleop15.9
End7.9
Third
3160
#29
33.60.9
31.031.8
Auto6.9
Teleop19.7
End7.0
red by 4.4
2359
#20
29.20.5
28.729.2
Auto10.1
Teleop11.9
End7.2