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Red169
156146.0
642461.3
233334.9
Blue168
198643.3
216531.2
461362.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions146144120130140150160170180169168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.30.6
59.760.3
Auto15.0
Teleop37.1
End8.7
blue by 0.7
62.00.7
61.862.5
Auto14.7
Teleop39.0
End8.3
Second
46.00.6
44.445.0
Auto10.6
Teleop25.2
End10.1
red by 2.7
1986
#15
43.30.7
43.143.9
Auto13.9
Teleop22.8
End6.6
Third
2333
#34
34.90.6
33.434.0
Auto10.2
Teleop20.4
End4.2
red by 3.7
2165
#23
31.20.7
31.131.8
Auto10.8
Teleop12.5
End8.0