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Red170
447654.9
368364.2
136031.5
Blue186
220053.8
205683.7
499229.6
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15418150100200250170186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.20.4
63.964.2
Auto15.2
Teleop39.8
End8.5
blue by 19.4
83.70.3
83.383.7
Auto20.2
Teleop54.3
End7.8
Second
54.90.4
54.554.9
Auto15.0
Teleop29.5
End9.7
red by 1.1
53.80.3
53.553.8
Auto16.1
Teleop28.9
End8.5
Third
1360
#35
31.50.4
31.231.5
Auto7.5
Teleop15.7
End8.4
red by 2.0
4992
#16
29.60.3
29.229.6
Auto8.8
Teleop13.3
End7.7