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Red132
260950.2
491743.9
403960.1
Blue126
468849.6
492047.3
86537.6
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16213650100150200250132126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.10.6
59.659.0
Auto15.6
Teleop35.8
End7.2
red by 10.5
49.60.4
49.248.8
Auto10.9
Teleop29.8
End8.4
Second
2609
#14
50.20.6
49.749.1
Auto13.1
Teleop28.2
End8.7
red by 2.8
4920
#10
47.30.4
47.046.5
Auto14.1
Teleop24.7
End7.5
Third
4917
#23
43.90.6
43.442.9
Auto11.6
Teleop24.5
End7.4
red by 6.2
865
#15
37.60.4
37.336.9
Auto10.8
Teleop17.7
End9.1