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Red134
502450.1
111458.5
270827.4
Blue153
132567.1
490355.6
373936.3
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139165100150200250134153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1114
#17
58.50.0
57.857.8
Auto14.6
Teleop35.5
End8.0
blue by 8.6
67.10.0
65.265.2
Auto16.7
Teleop39.4
End9.6
Second
50.10.0
49.449.4
Auto12.8
Teleop29.5
End7.9
blue by 5.5
55.60.0
53.753.8
Auto14.1
Teleop33.0
End7.7
Third
2708
#29
27.40.0
26.726.7
Auto8.3
Teleop13.1
End6.2
blue by 8.9
3739
#38
36.30.0
34.434.5
Auto10.7
Teleop20.1
End5.7