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Red130
999617.4
132565.3
131052.2
Blue157
999136.3
540654.9
876428.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145112050100200250130157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.30.1
65.865.7
Auto16.5
Teleop37.0
End9.9
red by 10.4
54.90.9
53.654.5
Auto16.3
Teleop30.3
End7.5
Second
52.20.1
52.652.5
Auto16.5
Teleop26.8
End8.3
red by 15.9
9991
#10
36.31.0
34.835.8
Auto8.9
Teleop18.4
End9.3
Third
9996
#21
17.40.1
17.917.8
Auto3.2
Teleop7.1
End7.5
blue by 11.2
8764
#17
28.60.9
27.228.2
Auto8.2
Teleop14.9
End5.6