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Red167
368358.3
808922.9
467871.4
Blue147
403960.4
260947.5
263425.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15913750100200250167147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.40.5
69.269.7
Auto19.0
Teleop42.1
End7.6
red by 10.9
60.40.4
59.359.7
Auto14.7
Teleop36.5
End8.0
Second
58.30.5
56.156.6
Auto11.7
Teleop36.4
End9.3
red by 10.7
47.50.4
46.446.8
Auto13.4
Teleop26.1
End8.3
Third
8089
#18
22.90.5
20.721.2
Auto8.3
Teleop8.1
End7.2
blue by 2.5
2634
#25
25.40.4
24.324.6
Auto6.2
Teleop13.4
End5.9