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Red116
490762.4
755851.0
765919.7
Blue115
132550.9
430823.5
124149.1
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14412650100200116115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.40.4
62.462.0
Auto15.9
Teleop36.3
End9.0
red by 11.5
50.90.1
50.250.1
Auto13.7
Teleop29.1
End7.0
Second
51.00.4
51.150.7
Auto13.4
Teleop29.3
End8.4
red by 1.9
49.10.1
48.448.3
Auto11.5
Teleop29.3
End7.6
Third
7659
#24
19.70.4
19.719.3
Auto7.0
Teleop7.2
End5.9
blue by 3.8
4308
#16
23.50.1
22.822.7
Auto9.2
Teleop9.9
End4.8