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Red157
159161.9
93067.5
265630.4
Blue150
178148.0
839342.9
263845.0
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173139100150200250157150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
930
#1
67.50.0
67.567.5
Auto16.0
Teleop43.5
End7.6
red by 19.5
1781
#17
48.00.3
47.748.0
Auto10.2
Teleop30.8
End7.0
Second
61.90.0
62.061.9
Auto17.1
Teleop35.8
End8.7
red by 16.9
2638
#21
45.00.3
44.745.0
Auto12.4
Teleop24.4
End8.2
Third
2656
#39
30.40.0
30.530.4
Auto7.7
Teleop13.3
End9.4
blue by 12.5
42.90.3
42.642.9
Auto13.8
Teleop22.4
End6.8