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Red140
915629.4
331050.8
271441.1
Blue116
874932.6
420639.6
908022.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1319450150200140116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.80.4
50.350.7
Auto13.3
Teleop31.7
End5.6
red by 11.2
39.60.5
38.939.4
Auto9.9
Teleop21.8
End7.9
Second
41.10.4
40.641.0
Auto12.5
Teleop21.8
End6.7
red by 8.5
32.60.5
32.032.5
Auto5.8
Teleop19.9
End7.0
Third
9156
#23
29.40.4
29.029.3
Auto10.1
Teleop13.2
End6.0
red by 6.6
9080
#19
22.80.5
22.222.7
Auto3.6
Teleop12.3
End7.0