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Red110
300570.9
875013.8
32445.4
Blue153
288158.1
147750.4
851531.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13814580100120160180200110153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#11
70.91.3
70.469.0
Auto17.2
Teleop47.3
End4.7
red by 12.8
58.10.0
57.857.8
Auto11.7
Teleop35.7
End9.3
Second
324
#24
45.41.3
44.543.2
Auto10.9
Teleop25.8
End8.5
blue by 5.0
1477
#15
50.40.0
48.548.5
Auto13.9
Teleop30.2
End5.4
Third
8750
#34
13.81.3
15.113.8
Auto8.9
Teleop3.0
End2.1
blue by 18.0
31.80.0
29.629.6
Auto10.9
Teleop14.9
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
91%Sustainability oddsMissed66%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
56%Activation oddsMissed61%Activation oddsEarned