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Red158
680045.8
851531.8
32445.4
Blue135
258734.7
147750.4
749225.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions130115050100150200250158135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6800
#28
45.80.9
44.645.4
Auto9.1
Teleop30.4
End6.6
blue by 4.6
1477
#15
50.40.6
49.850.4
Auto13.9
Teleop30.2
End5.4
Second
324
#24
45.40.9
44.245.1
Auto10.9
Teleop25.8
End8.5
red by 10.7
2587
#12
34.70.6
34.134.7
Auto11.2
Teleop16.7
End7.0
Third
31.80.9
30.631.5
Auto10.9
Teleop14.9
End6.2
red by 6.0
7492
#14
25.70.6
25.225.7
Auto6.1
Teleop15.6
End4.4