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Red154
541448.2
288153.0
32439.3
Blue148
384754.0
857638.5
817745.0
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions147146110120130140160170180154148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.00.4
52.452.8
Auto11.3
Teleop31.7
End8.8
blue by 1.0
54.00.3
53.854.0
Auto11.9
Teleop33.4
End8.5
Second
5414
#21
48.20.4
47.648.0
Auto11.7
Teleop28.4
End8.1
red by 3.2
8177
#33
45.00.3
44.745.0
Auto10.9
Teleop26.5
End6.6
Third
324
#24
39.30.4
38.639.0
Auto9.4
Teleop20.9
End8.8
red by 0.8
8576
#13
38.50.3
38.238.5
Auto7.8
Teleop22.5
End8.4