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Red169
491145.0
999932.5
241252.6
Blue140
154046.0
999428.6
366356.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions121134050100200250300350169140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2412
#11
52.61.1
49.050.1
Auto14.5
Teleop31.5
End6.5
blue by 3.6
56.20.1
56.156.2
Auto13.6
Teleop36.4
End6.2
Second
4911
#10
45.01.1
41.542.6
Auto7.5
Teleop27.8
End9.7
blue by 0.9
46.00.1
45.946.0
Auto13.3
Teleop26.3
End6.2
Third
9999
#22
32.51.1
29.030.1
Auto10.1
Teleop14.6
End8.1
red by 3.9
9994
#28
28.60.1
28.528.6
Auto10.0
Teleop13.1
End5.6