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Red128
468233.3
49242.8
368125.6
Blue141
824830.7
129427.9
94838.2
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1089650150200128141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
492
#10
42.80.6
42.142.8
Auto12.0
Teleop23.9
End6.9
red by 4.6
948
#11
38.21.1
36.437.5
Auto9.3
Teleop21.2
End7.7
Second
4682
#14
33.30.6
32.733.3
Auto11.8
Teleop15.1
End6.4
red by 2.6
8248
#24
30.71.1
28.930.0
Auto6.6
Teleop20.7
End3.4
Third
3681
#16
25.60.6
25.025.6
Auto6.1
Teleop12.1
End7.4
blue by 2.3
1294
#15
27.91.1
26.227.3
Auto6.5
Teleop12.8
End8.7