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Red172
206227.3
171447.6
657442.3
Blue122
9339.3
999928.7
319745.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125108050150200250300172122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.61.3
46.647.9
Auto11.8
Teleop26.7
End8.7
red by 2.3
45.40.2
45.245.4
Auto11.7
Teleop24.4
End9.2
Second
42.31.3
41.342.6
Auto13.0
Teleop20.7
End8.9
red by 3.1
93
#10
39.30.2
39.039.3
Auto12.4
Teleop20.9
End6.0
Third
2062
#21
27.31.3
26.327.6
Auto9.1
Teleop13.3
End5.1
blue by 1.4
9999
#15
28.70.3
28.528.7
Auto8.7
Teleop15.4
End5.0