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Red154
206227.3
657442.3
171447.6
Blue135
220235.2
638134.5
999327.6
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12096050150200154135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.61.0
44.645.6
Auto11.8
Teleop26.7
End8.7
red by 12.5
2202
#13
35.20.7
34.234.9
Auto8.8
Teleop19.4
End7.6
Second
42.31.0
39.340.3
Auto13.0
Teleop20.7
End8.9
red by 7.9
6381
#19
34.50.7
33.534.2
Auto6.7
Teleop22.2
End5.6
Third
2062
#21
27.31.0
24.325.3
Auto9.1
Teleop13.3
End5.1
blue by 0.3
9993
#12
27.60.8
26.427.3
Auto6.1
Teleop13.4
End8.2