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Red107
354641.2
716039.9
335739.6
Blue139
609053.7
10739.4
205449.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions126154050100200250300350107139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.20.3
41.541.2
Auto12.1
Teleop21.4
End7.7
blue by 12.5
6090
#17
53.70.1
54.053.8
Auto13.6
Teleop28.6
End10.1
Second
7160
#11
39.90.3
40.239.9
Auto10.9
Teleop21.1
End7.5
blue by 10.0
2054
#15
49.90.1
50.250.1
Auto11.6
Teleop27.3
End8.2
Third
3357
#32
39.60.3
39.939.6
Auto11.8
Teleop18.2
End9.0
red by 0.1
107
#22
39.40.1
39.739.6
Auto12.9
Teleop19.0
End7.6