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Red83
288324.5
949642.6
80569.9
Blue99
271828.2
365633.3
348921.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8383808590958399

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9496
#23
42.60.5
35.936.4
Auto15.9
Teleop25.3
End1.5
red by 9.3
33.30.9
29.430.3
Auto10.0
Teleop19.7
End3.5
Second
2883
#53
24.50.5
28.428.9
Auto11.0
Teleop9.9
End3.5
blue by 3.8
2718
#25
28.20.9
25.426.4
Auto12.5
Teleop14.3
End1.5
Third
8056
#68
9.90.5
11.111.6
Auto3.8
Teleop5.3
End0.8
blue by 11.6
3489
#28
21.50.9
20.321.2
Auto7.6
Teleop13.4
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
80%Melody oddsEarned79%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsEarned