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Red119
271828.2
59728.7
473836.1
Blue118
1635.9
116830.4
705630.3
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97106406080120140160119118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4738
#42
36.12.0
33.035.0
Auto10.5
Teleop23.1
End2.4
red by 0.2
16
#41
35.91.4
31.733.1
Auto8.6
Teleop24.7
End2.6
Second
597
#16
28.72.0
27.829.7
Auto9.9
Teleop17.0
End1.9
blue by 1.7
1168
#51
30.41.4
32.634.1
Auto11.6
Teleop18.3
End0.5
Third
2718
#25
28.22.0
28.430.4
Auto12.5
Teleop14.3
End1.5
blue by 2.1
7056
#34
30.31.4
30.431.9
Auto12.3
Teleop15.5
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
94%Melody oddsEarned95%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed29%Ensemble oddsMissed