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Red59
55643.5
587614.1
801132.6
Blue10
61915.1
71287.4
942711.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52340204060805910

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.61.3
29.630.9
Auto17.1
Teleop11.7
End3.8
red by 21.0
9427
#20
11.62.4
11.99.6
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End1.6
Second
5876
#10
14.11.3
11.212.5
Auto6.2
Teleop5.4
End2.5
red by 6.7
7128
#39
7.42.4
9.97.5
Auto1.7
Teleop3.6
End2.2
Third
5564
#40
3.51.3
3.85.1
Auto1.6
Teleop1.2
End0.8
blue by 1.6
6191
#41
5.12.4
11.18.7
Auto1.1
Teleop2.5
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsMissed11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed